Cloture

Today the Republicans invoked cloture in a 51-49 vote to end a Democratic filibuster on the nomination of Judge Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Only one Democrat voted yea and only one Republican voted nay. The debate is now limited to 30 more hours. Tomorrow between midnight and noon the senate's current debate meeting will recess and then reconvene starting a new legislative day. After the final 30 hours are finished there will be the final vote on confirmation and the motion to reconsider. If it passes then the President can sign the appointment in to law. If it fails it fails. If it is a tie like always the Vice President has the tiebreaker and he himself supports the nominee. 51 Senators have pledged on the floor to vote yea on the final vote and 49 have said they will vote nay.

That means the yea's with the tiebreaker have a 52-59 advantage. The nays need to flip two votes to change there mind. It is very unusual for a Senator to change there mind after voting for cloture and then going on the floor and saying they support the nominee in debate. It is also unusual for those who vote nay in cloture and then go on the floor for debate and oppose the nomination only to change there mind on the final vote. The Vice President would almost certainly not break a tie against the wishes of the President. That means that unless something major happens the nomination will most likely pass tomorrow. The impact on the midterms is yet to be seen.