25 Days

With 25 days to go until the election the are important things to understand about election ratings and polls. First sometimes the polls can be wrong. In 2016 the polls said the Hillary would win and the Democrats would take the Senate in a blue wave when the opposite occurred. Second, the winner of the popular vote does not always win the majority. In 2016 the Democrats won the majority of votes for president and lost and in 2012 the Democrats won the most votes for congress and lost.

Elections can be rated Safe, Likely, Leaning, and Tossup. If the race is called safe then the polls show that there is no realistic chance of the opponent winning. An example would be being up over 20 points in the polls. It is very rare for the polls to be wrong. A likely race is one where there is a clear forerunner bust an upset would not be a complete shock. A leaning race is one where the leader is just outside the margin of error. It would be an upset but not by much. A tossup is a race within the margin of error. For the overall race to be leaning a majority of seats must be leaning or better. Same with likely, and safe races.

There are five types of states, districts, and counties in this election. In each race they can be divided about equally and at all levels. They are Democratic Safe (States), Republican Safe (States), Democratic Bellwether (States), Republican Bellwether (States), and Swing (States). Safe states will not flip to the other party unless there is a landslide election and only after the swing states and bellwether states flip. Bellwether states are needed by the party to win but will only be flipped by the other side if they win the swing states in a wave election. The swing states are the states that will decided a close election. To win safe states need to be won first, followed by bellwether states and then swing states.

For a majority swing seats must be won. For a wave election and a super majority of 3/5 some of the opposing sides bellwether states must be won. For a landslide election and a 2/3 super majorly some of the opposing safe seats must be won. Swing seats are mostly rated from tossup to lean for either party. Bellwether seats can be from likely to tossup. Safe seats can be from safe to lean.