50 Days

With 50 days to go before the midterm election the results are mixed in the latest polling. In the House the Democrats are clearly in the lead now according to the latest polls. In the Senate the Republicans have a clear lead in the polls. Also in governor elections nationwide along with state legislative elections the Republicans have the lead. This is because every state has two senators while the number of congressman each state has is by population. The Republicans do good in small states but the Democrats do good in large states. That is why the popular vote matters little in the senate race unlike the house and presidential race where the popular vote winner usually wins.

If the Democrats want to be make things hard on Trump into 2020 they need to win the house and senate. That is because if the opposition party controls both the house and senate they usually win the next presidential election and the president usually wins the next election. You can say it is best two out of three. If a party controls the house and senate, or if a party controls one of the houses and the white house they are likely to win the presidency two years latter. If they win all three they are almost unstoppable. This give the Republicans a clear advantage. They will control the white house and will therefore only need to take one house. The Democrats need to win at least one and probably two houses.

In 2016 the Republicans had both houses and won the white house. In 2012 the Democrats had the Senate and White House from 2010 and won. In 2008 the Democrats had congress and won. In 2004 the Republicans had the house and white house. In 2000 The Republicans had both houses of congress. 1996 was the last time a party won the presidency without winning congress or the white house in the previous election. The last time a challenger won without his party controlling both houses was Ronald Reagan in 1980. The last time a Challenger won without his party controlling one house of Congress was Richard Nixon. The last time a Democratic challenger won without controlling either house of Congress was FDR in 1932. This election will have an impact on the 2020 election.